Will the market finally show signs of weakness?

Normal market trends are for gasoline to show signs of weakness as the refiners switch to winter grade gas. End of year weakness will normally cause a contango'd market to carry through the heating season; but this year, unexpected refinery problems and scheduled turnaround have kept prompt supplies of gasoline tight.
"The momentum is for a down start to the week unless we see more bids come into the market on the prompt side," said one trader. Other traders said that the market should return to the "seasonal normal" trend, which means it should begin to go into a winter contango. "It depends on how much gasoline imports you see coming in last week and the first half of November," a second trader said. The general market consensus is that the gasoline imports last week should be above 800,000 b/d, following three weeks of sub-par import levels.
Other traders anticipate that arbitrage hasn't brought in significant imports and not much has changed. Overall, anticipate the market to maintain until we see inventory values on Wednesday morning.

Gas & Diesel Prices (Week ended 10/28/09)

Gasoline and Diesel Prices Still Climbing
The U.S. average price for regular gasoline increased for the third consecutive week, shooting up a dime to $2.67 per gallon. For the first time since October 20, 2008, the national average price is now higher than it was the year before. Nonetheless, the average was $1.44 below the all-time high price set on July 7, 2008. Prices increased in all the major regions of the country. On the East Coast, the average surged nearly 13 cents to hit $2.65 per gallon. The average for the Lower Atlantic portion of the East Coast went up even more, soaring 14 cents. The average in the Midwest shot up 12 cents to $2.66 per gallon. Despite an increase of 11 cents, at $2.55, the price on the Gulf Coast remained the lowest of any region. In the Rocky Mountains, the average rose six cents to settle at $2.58 per gallon. The smallest increase occurred in the West Coast, where the average rose just under two cents to $2.89 per gallon. The price in California was essentially unchanged at $2.99 per gallon. The national average price of diesel fuel climbed to $2.80 per gallon, a jump of a dime. Despite the increase, the average remained $0.49 below the price a year ago. Prices increased in all regions of the country. The averages on the East Coast, in the Midwest, and on the Gulf Coast all increased by about ten cents. At $2.82, the price on the East Coast was $0.58 below a year ago, while the Midwest average, at $2.79, was $0.45 less than the year-ago average. The price in the Gulf Coast remained the lowest of any region at $2.74 per gallon. The smallest increase of any region took place in the Rocky Mountains, where the price rose seven cents to $2.78 per gallon. On the West Coast, the average went up eight cents to $2.90 per gallon and the California price jumped nine cents to $2.97 per gallon.

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