Government energy forecasters see U.S. demand for petroleum fuels seeing no growth through the year 2035 in the absence of new policies mandating lower greenhouse gas (GHG) levels or higher efficiencies, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Monday.
Part of the forecast stems from talks in Copenhagen, Denmark, among international leaders to devise a global plan to cut GHG emissions. The projections suggest the implications for energy use in the event that not enough action is taken to reduce levels of gases widely held responsible for global warming.
The EIA now sees growth in liquid fuels demand through 2035 coming from biofuel production, with consumption of petroleum fuels holding essentially flat, according to a report from Dow Jones Newswires.
Ethanol production is forecast to grow to about 28 billion gallons a year by 2035, up from around 10 billion gal/year currently. That level falls below the 36 billion gal/year mandate for all biofuels by 2022. Failure to meet the mandates is due largely to the expected slow growth of advanced biofuel technologies, the report said.
Total U.S. energy use is forecast to grow 14% from 2008 levels by 2035, including a 5% decline from the economic recession. Fossil fuels are seen providing 78% of U.S. energy needs by 2035, down from the current 84%, due to efficiency gains.
Assuming OPEC holds onto a 40% share of the oil market, U.S. oil prices are expected to rise to around $133/bbl in 2008 dollars by 2035, pressured higher by global demand growth.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
EPA likely to increase the Ethanol blend to 15%
The Environmental Protection Agency said Monday that it would probably increase the amount of ethanol that gasoline retailers could blend into ordinary fuel, to 15 percent, if tests established that the blend would not damage cars.
In a letter to Growth Energy, an ethanol trade association that filed the request for a higher blend in March, the E.P.A. said that “our engineering assessment to date indicates that the robust fuel, engine and emissions control systems on newer vehicles (likely 2001 and newer model years) will likely be able to accommodate higher ethanol blends, such as E15.” But the agency added that it would wait for the Energy Department to test a dozen vehicles, a task that should be completed in May.
In a letter to Growth Energy, an ethanol trade association that filed the request for a higher blend in March, the E.P.A. said that “our engineering assessment to date indicates that the robust fuel, engine and emissions control systems on newer vehicles (likely 2001 and newer model years) will likely be able to accommodate higher ethanol blends, such as E15.” But the agency added that it would wait for the Energy Department to test a dozen vehicles, a task that should be completed in May.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Will the market finally show signs of weakness?
Normal market trends are for gasoline to show signs of weakness as the refiners switch to winter grade gas. End of year weakness will normally cause a contango'd market to carry through the heating season; but this year, unexpected refinery problems and scheduled turnaround have kept prompt supplies of gasoline tight.
"The momentum is for a down start to the week unless we see more bids come into the market on the prompt side," said one trader. Other traders said that the market should return to the "seasonal normal" trend, which means it should begin to go into a winter contango. "It depends on how much gasoline imports you see coming in last week and the first half of November," a second trader said. The general market consensus is that the gasoline imports last week should be above 800,000 b/d, following three weeks of sub-par import levels.
Other traders anticipate that arbitrage hasn't brought in significant imports and not much has changed. Overall, anticipate the market to maintain until we see inventory values on Wednesday morning.
"The momentum is for a down start to the week unless we see more bids come into the market on the prompt side," said one trader. Other traders said that the market should return to the "seasonal normal" trend, which means it should begin to go into a winter contango. "It depends on how much gasoline imports you see coming in last week and the first half of November," a second trader said. The general market consensus is that the gasoline imports last week should be above 800,000 b/d, following three weeks of sub-par import levels.
Other traders anticipate that arbitrage hasn't brought in significant imports and not much has changed. Overall, anticipate the market to maintain until we see inventory values on Wednesday morning.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Gas & Diesel Prices (Week ended 10/28/09)
Gasoline and Diesel Prices Still Climbing
The U.S. average price for regular gasoline increased for the third consecutive week, shooting up a dime to $2.67 per gallon. For the first time since October 20, 2008, the national average price is now higher than it was the year before. Nonetheless, the average was $1.44 below the all-time high price set on July 7, 2008. Prices increased in all the major regions of the country. On the East Coast, the average surged nearly 13 cents to hit $2.65 per gallon. The average for the Lower Atlantic portion of the East Coast went up even more, soaring 14 cents. The average in the Midwest shot up 12 cents to $2.66 per gallon. Despite an increase of 11 cents, at $2.55, the price on the Gulf Coast remained the lowest of any region. In the Rocky Mountains, the average rose six cents to settle at $2.58 per gallon. The smallest increase occurred in the West Coast, where the average rose just under two cents to $2.89 per gallon. The price in California was essentially unchanged at $2.99 per gallon. The national average price of diesel fuel climbed to $2.80 per gallon, a jump of a dime. Despite the increase, the average remained $0.49 below the price a year ago. Prices increased in all regions of the country. The averages on the East Coast, in the Midwest, and on the Gulf Coast all increased by about ten cents. At $2.82, the price on the East Coast was $0.58 below a year ago, while the Midwest average, at $2.79, was $0.45 less than the year-ago average. The price in the Gulf Coast remained the lowest of any region at $2.74 per gallon. The smallest increase of any region took place in the Rocky Mountains, where the price rose seven cents to $2.78 per gallon. On the West Coast, the average went up eight cents to $2.90 per gallon and the California price jumped nine cents to $2.97 per gallon.
The U.S. average price for regular gasoline increased for the third consecutive week, shooting up a dime to $2.67 per gallon. For the first time since October 20, 2008, the national average price is now higher than it was the year before. Nonetheless, the average was $1.44 below the all-time high price set on July 7, 2008. Prices increased in all the major regions of the country. On the East Coast, the average surged nearly 13 cents to hit $2.65 per gallon. The average for the Lower Atlantic portion of the East Coast went up even more, soaring 14 cents. The average in the Midwest shot up 12 cents to $2.66 per gallon. Despite an increase of 11 cents, at $2.55, the price on the Gulf Coast remained the lowest of any region. In the Rocky Mountains, the average rose six cents to settle at $2.58 per gallon. The smallest increase occurred in the West Coast, where the average rose just under two cents to $2.89 per gallon. The price in California was essentially unchanged at $2.99 per gallon. The national average price of diesel fuel climbed to $2.80 per gallon, a jump of a dime. Despite the increase, the average remained $0.49 below the price a year ago. Prices increased in all regions of the country. The averages on the East Coast, in the Midwest, and on the Gulf Coast all increased by about ten cents. At $2.82, the price on the East Coast was $0.58 below a year ago, while the Midwest average, at $2.79, was $0.45 less than the year-ago average. The price in the Gulf Coast remained the lowest of any region at $2.74 per gallon. The smallest increase of any region took place in the Rocky Mountains, where the price rose seven cents to $2.78 per gallon. On the West Coast, the average went up eight cents to $2.90 per gallon and the California price jumped nine cents to $2.97 per gallon.
Monday, October 19, 2009
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