Government energy forecasters see U.S. demand for petroleum fuels seeing no growth through the year 2035 in the absence of new policies mandating lower greenhouse gas (GHG) levels or higher efficiencies, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Monday.
Part of the forecast stems from talks in Copenhagen, Denmark, among international leaders to devise a global plan to cut GHG emissions. The projections suggest the implications for energy use in the event that not enough action is taken to reduce levels of gases widely held responsible for global warming.
The EIA now sees growth in liquid fuels demand through 2035 coming from biofuel production, with consumption of petroleum fuels holding essentially flat, according to a report from Dow Jones Newswires.
Ethanol production is forecast to grow to about 28 billion gallons a year by 2035, up from around 10 billion gal/year currently. That level falls below the 36 billion gal/year mandate for all biofuels by 2022. Failure to meet the mandates is due largely to the expected slow growth of advanced biofuel technologies, the report said.
Total U.S. energy use is forecast to grow 14% from 2008 levels by 2035, including a 5% decline from the economic recession. Fossil fuels are seen providing 78% of U.S. energy needs by 2035, down from the current 84%, due to efficiency gains.
Assuming OPEC holds onto a 40% share of the oil market, U.S. oil prices are expected to rise to around $133/bbl in 2008 dollars by 2035, pressured higher by global demand growth.
Monday, December 14, 2009
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