Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook

To see details of this forecast update, go to the following World Wide Web site on the Internet:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Highlights

• EIA projects average household expenditures for space-heating fuels will total $986 this winter (October 1 to March 31), an increase of $24, or 2.5 percent, from last winter.  EIA projects higher expenditures in all fuels except electricity, where expenditures decline by 2 percent.  This forecast reflects moderately higher prices for all the fuels, although slightly milder weather than last winter for much of the Nation should contribute to lower consumption in many areas.

• According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) most recent projection of heating degree-days, the lower-48 states are forecast to be 3 percent warmer during the October through March winter heating season compared with last winter and 1 percent warmer than the 30-year average (1971-2000).  However, heating degree-day projections vary widely between regions.  For example, the Northeast, the principal market for heating oil, is projected to be about 5 percent colder than last winter, while the South is projected to be about 15 percent warmer. 

• EIA expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average about $80 per barrel this winter, a $2.50-per-barrel increase over last winter.  The forecast for average WTI prices rises gradually to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2011 as U.S. and global economic conditions improve.  EIA’s forecast assumes U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 2.6 percent in 2010 and 2.1 percent in 2011, while world oil-consumption-weighted GDP grows by 3.8 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, in 2010 and 2011.

• Projected natural gas inventories reach more than 3.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at the end of this year’s injection season (October 31).  This projected volume will be about 3 percent lower than last year’s record-setting level but will still represent the second highest underground storage level on record for the month of October.  The projected Henry Hub annual average spot price increases from $3.95 per million Btu (MMBtu) in 2009 to $4.47 in 2010 and $4.58 in 2011.  

Iowa Biodiesel Economics June 2010.wmv

THE WINNER OF FAUSER MADNESS 2010 IS CROWNED!!!

Congratulations Mike. Deborah says it will be a pleasure to deliver the television to you!!

Thank you everyone for playing Fauser Madness and visiting us in our Hospitality Room. It was a great evening and a tournament full of surprises over the last few weeks.......we had so much fun!!!

Thank you again,
Paul, Glen, Darrell, Bruce, Jon, Deborah, Luke, Char, Judy and Angela

Rank Team Name Score Best Score Champion
1 Michael Hunke 121 121 Duke (125)
2 Rich Cannon 105 105 Duke (150)
3 Eric Stark 103 103 Duke (147)
4 Ron Williams 89 89 Kansas (142)
5 Scott Haller 86 86 Maryland (165)
6 Terri Lix 84 84 Kansas (103)
7 Larry Blaesi 82 82 Syracuse (149)
8 Charlie LaBelle79 79 Kansas (121)
9 Tim Lichti 75 75 Kansas (161)
10 Ken Schiemeyer 73 73 Kentucky (153)
11 Jen Schiermeyer 68 68 Kentucky (124)
12 Todd Schiermeyer68 68 Kansas (141)
13 Fred Bosselman68 68 Kansas (163)
14 Dan Halligan 66 66 Kansas (160)
15 Mike Jaberg 65 65 Kansas (146)
16 Ken Caldwell 64 64 Kentucky (159)
17 Doug Hall 63 63 Kansas (142)
18 Jack Hill 62 62 Kansas (161)
19 Darrell Wilhelm61 61 Villanova (123)
20 Troy Lindsey 61 61 Kansas (145)
21 Scott Bond 60 60 Kansas (103)
22 Randy Birchem59 59 Kansas (183)
23 Joan Schiemeyer55 55 Villanova (166)
24 Shelly Broekemeyer55 55 Kansas (172)
25 Masterhunter 54 54 Kansas (177)
26 Kelly Scott 52 52 Kansas (140)
27 John Hepler 52 52 Kansas (98)
28 Lauren Simmons46 46 Kansas (122)
29 Dan Cook 46 46 Kansas (154)
30 Rita Tracy 45 45 Texas (154)
31 Sheri Wetzel 40 40 Ohio St. (123)

10:30 a.m. Monday Market Update

Crude   +1.83    $86.70
Diesel  +0.0540   $2.2707
Gas     +0.0372   $2.3609

10:05 a.m. Wednesday Market Update

Crude   +0.33   $82.70
Diesel & Gas roll to the next month /
Consult with marketer  800-541-1226

11:30 a.m. Tuesday Market Update

Crude   +0.06  $82.23
Diesel +0.0027  $2.1215
Gas    +0.0062   $2.2675

9:40 a.m. Tuesday Market Update

Crude    +0.41   $82.58
Diesel  +0.0012  $2.1200
Gas     +0.0122   $2.2735

12:30 p.m. Monday Market Update

Crude   +2.25    $82.27
Diesel  +0.0588  $2.1285
Gas      +0.0631  $2.2705

10:30 a.m. Monday Market Update

Crude   +2.47    $82.47
Diesel +0.0048  $2.1345
Gas     +0.0616  $2.2690

9:50 a.m. Friday Market Update

Crude   -0.32   $80.21
Diesel  -0.0023  $2.0670
Gas    -0.0145   $2.2032

12:00 p.m. Thursday Market Update

Crude   +0.83    $81.44
Diesel  +0.0154  $2.0861
Gas    +0.0132   $2.2344

9:05 a.m. Thursday Market Update

Crude   +0.48   $81.09
Diesel +0.0104  $2.0811
Gas   +0.0076   $2.2288

10:50 a.m. Wednesday Market Update

Crude   -1.30   $80.61
Diesel -0.0267  $2.0751
Gas   -0.0438   $2.2193

8:25 am Wednesday Market Update

Crude    -1.63     $80.28
Diesel -0.0390   $2.0628
Gas     -0.0473   $2.2155

1:35 p.m. Tuesday Market Update

Crude    +.28    $81.88
Diesel +0.0163  $2.1000
Gas     +0.0044  $2.2606

1:10 p.m. Monday Market Update

Crude   +.35      $81.03
Diesel +0.0033 $2.0800
Gas    -0.0029 $2.2528

12:10 p.m. Monday Market Update

Crude      +.55    $81.23
Diesel   +0.0098  $2.0865
Gas      +0.0013  $2.2578

10:50 a.m. Monday Market Update

Crude     -.36    $80.94
Diesel  -0.0089  $2.0784
Gas    -0.0212   $2.2585

12:30 p.m. Friday Market Update

Crude    -1.86   $ 80.34
Diesel  -0.0557  $2.1160
Gas     -0.0592  $2.3039

9:10 a.m. Friday Market Update

Crude    -.45   $81.75
Diesel  -0.0163  $2.1160
Gas     -0.0147  $2.3039

12:00 p.m. Thursday Market Update

Crude    -.99     $82.85
Diesel  -0.0281  $2.1362
Gas     -0.0216  $2.3100

11:00 a.m. Thursday Market Update

Crude   -.84    $ 82.09
Diesel -0.0250 $2.1145
Gas   -0.0202  $2.2895

11:25 a.m. Tuesday Market Update

Crude  + 1.92   $81.72
Diesel +0.0584  $2.1160
Gas    +0.0574  $2.2802

9:00 a.m. Tuesday Market Update

Crude    +1.05   $80.80
Diesel  +0.0309  $2.0885
Gas    +0.0286   $2.2514

1:10 p.m. Monday Market Update

Crude   -1.80    $79.44
Diesel  -0.0428  $2.0512
Gas     -0.0423  $2.2127

11:00 a.m. Monday Market Update

Crude   -1.80  $79.44
Diesel   -0.0408  $2.0532
Gas      -0.0431  $2.2119

9:30 a.m. Monday Market Update

Crude  -1.40   $79.84
Diesel  -0.0318  $2.0622
Gas   -0.0320   2.2230

1:45 p.m Friday Market Update

Crude  -0.85  =  $81.25
Diesel  -0.0190  =  $2.0960
Gas   -0.0185  =  $2.2535

12:15 p.m. Friday Market Update

Crude  -.94  =  $81.17
Diesel  -0.0270  =  $2.0880
Gas  -0.0250  =  $2.2470
Propane  = no change

9:30 a.m. Friday Market Update

Crude -0.11  =  $82.00
Diesel  unchanged =  $2.1150
Gas  -0.0014  =  $2.2706

12:30 p.m. Thursday Market Update

Crude = -0.38   >  $82.04
Diesel = +0.0008  >  $2.1170
Gas =  -.0123  >  $2.2278

10:00 am Thursday Market Update

Crude = -.19
Diesel = +0.0041
Gas = -0.0150
Propane = +0.0200

Inventories and Markets

Inventories for the week ending March 5, 2010
Crude up 1.4
Diesel down 2.2
Gas down 2.9
Propane down 1.5

Markets at 10:30 AM are
Crude up 1.22 to $82.70
Diesel is up .0370
Gas is up .0410
Propane is a no change to down a 1/2 cent

Please call if we can get any loads set up for you.

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook -- March 09, 2010 Release

To see details of this forecast update, go to the following World Wide Web site on the Internet:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Highlights

• Although spot crude oil prices continue to fluctuate on a daily basis, EIA’s projections for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices have remained relatively stable over the last 4 Outlooks. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $80 per barrel this spring, rising to an average of about $82 per barrel by the end of the year and to $85 per barrel by the end of 2011.
• Projected economic growth this year is higher in this forecast, with U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growing by 2.8 percent and world oil-consumption-weighted real GDP growing by 3.4 percent, compared with 2.3 percent and 2.7 percent growth, respectively, in last month’s Outlook. The 2011 forecast for real GDP growth is relatively unchanged at 2.6 percent and 3.5 percent for the United States and the world, respectively.
•  EIA forecasts that the annual average regular grade retail gasoline price will increase from $2.35 per gallon in 2009 to $2.84 in 2010 and to $2.96 in 2011 because of the projected rising crude oil prices. Average U.S. pump prices likely will exceed $3 per gallon at times during the forthcoming spring and summer driving season. Projected annual average retail diesel fuel prices are $2.96 and $3.14 per gallon, respectively, in 2010 and 2011.
• EIA expects this year’s annual average natural gas Henry Hub spot price to be $5.17 per million Btu (MMBtu), a $1.22-per-MMBtu increase over the 2009 average. EIA projects price increases to continue in 2011, averaging $5.65 per MMBtu for the year. Projected working gas inventories end the first quarter of 2010 at about 1,550 billion cubic feet (Bcf) compared with 1,644 Bcf in the previous Outlook because of colder-than-normal weather in February. Natural-gas-weighted heating degree-days were nearly 11 percent above the 30-year norm last month.
• The annual average residential electricity price changes only slightly over the forecast period, averaging 11.5 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in both 2009 and 2010, and then rising to 11.6 cents per kWh in 2011.
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels, which declined by 6.4 percent in 2009, increase by 1.5 percent and 1.2 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively, in the forecast as economic growth fuels higher energy consumption.

Tuesday Noon NYMEX update

Crude -.27  =  81.60
Diesel -.0080 = 2.0975
Gas -.0235 = 2.2657

3-9-2010 Markets

Good Afternoon Everyone -

We have a few things for you.

First the market news at 12:05 PM (including the cash report)
Diesel is up .0025
Gas is down .0280
Propane is down around 2 cents
Crude oil is down .26, trading at $81.62

Second is a reminder to call us regarding special deals we have at some NuStar terminals. They can be a great savings to you and your business.

The last reminder is.......JOIN US FOR FAUSER MADNESS AT THE NEBRASKA CONVENTION NEXT TUESDAY EVENING. All you have to do is make your picks, fill out your bracket and you may win a 42" HDTV when the winner is crowned!!! We are looking forward to a great convention and hospitality room!!

UPDATE ON THE MARKETS

Good Afternoon -

Just a quick note about what our markets are doing this afternoon.

At 12:40 PM
Crude is up $1.42 to $81.63.
Diesel is up .0289
Gas is up .0370

Please call us for additional updates this afternoon.

HELP GET INFO ON THE BLOG

Everyone can comment.  Some of us can add posts

2010 NPCA Annual Convention at the Embassy Suites Hotel and Convention Center in LaVista, Nebraska -- MARCH 16 - 17 2010

Fauser Energy Resources and Dawson Oil Co employees, and their family members, are not allowed to partcipate in the contest.  Participants are encouraged to attend the convention but not required. 

Changing Distillate Export Patterns (TWIP) This Week In Petroleum; published by the (EIA) Energy Information Administration

Distillate (including diesel) is the second largest petroleum product consumed in the United States, used for everything from fuel for trucks and trains to residential heating and even a small amount of power generation. Although still overshadowed by gasoline consumption within the United States, global trends have been rapidly increasing the demand for distillate. This is causing major changes in the United States’ role in the world distillate market.
For many years, the United States was a net importer of relatively small volumes of distillate, primarily from Canada and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1). Imports were generally seasonal, coinciding with greater demand for heating oil during the winter heating season when additional supplies from areas like Eastern and Western Europe and Latin America would occasionally surge.
This trade pattern changed significantly in the spring, summer, and fall of 2008 as wholesale prices for distillate soared above those for gasoline. Distillate prices have rarely been higher than gasoline during the summer months but, the summer of 2008 saw an unprecedented and sustained premium for distillate. A variety of factors were behind the unusually high margins. In South America, price controls were limiting Argentina’s production and export of natural gas, and a severe drought in Chile was reducing its hydroelectric generation. Distillate fuel for electrical generation was a convenient short-term substitute for these shortages. Prices began to rise quickly in the face of this extra demand, but several prominent distillate consumers, including China and India, shielded their domestic consumers from the increased costs through fuel subsidies and price controls. The normal economic process of higher prices encouraging reduced consumption was therefore muted or absent in these countries.
With distillate selling for more than gasoline from August 2007 through February 2009 (except during the hurricanes in September 2008), domestic refiners continued to increase distillate yields in 2008, nearly reaching an unprecedented 30 percent by the end of 2008 (Figure 2). From June through August 2008, distillate yields averaged almost 3 percent higher than typical, which resulted in about 380 thousand barrels per day of additional distillate production – a volume that was more than 10 percent of total U.S. distillate demand during those months. This extra production was occurring despite the fact that domestic demand had fallen over 9 percent compared to the previous year. Refiners were responding to a global, not a domestic, opportunity, continuing a dynamic that began in mid-2007. The United States became a distillate exporter, especially to South America and Western Europe. Net exports peaked in August 2008 at about 740 thousand barrels per day, before falling to some extent later in the year in the face of the coming winter heating season and a significant decline in wholesale prices due to the global economic downturn.
In 2009, the distillate market has returned somewhat toward earlier behavior. Distillate has once again been selling at a discount to gasoline this year as the world economy struggles. However, the United States has remained an exporter of distillate fuel. Net exports through July have averaged about 350 thousand barrels per day compared to almost 275 thousand barrels per day for the same period in 2008.
The results of these market changes are not easy to predict. Many of the issues that led to last summer’s distillate market swings are not expected to repeat regularly, but the broad trends are informative. The Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency, and others continue to project global distillate demand growing much faster than gasoline, especially in the developing world. The United States may therefore remain a distillate exporter for some time.